Presidential Election Cycle Theory: A Bullish 2023?

This yr, 2023, is the heralded third yr of the presidential election cycle. It has kicked off with nervous markets eyeing political drama in Washington, DC: contentious votes to elect the Speaker of the Home of Representatives, a combative State of the Union presidential handle, partisan threats to not elevate the nation’s debt ceiling, and posturing and positioning by lawmakers forward of the 2024 election. Nonetheless, based on presidential election cycle idea, which was first referenced within the Inventory Dealer’s Almanac, this third yr of the four-year cycle ought to generate well-above-average inventory returns.

So, what are the strengths, limitations, and nuances of presidential election cycle idea and what does the current political context foretell relating to whether or not 2023 will comply with the expected development?

The traditional election cycle idea narrative, and why it augurs so nicely for 2023, goes as follows: “Presidents do the heavy lifting of their first and second yr in workplace after which pivot to making ready for reelection within the fourth yr by being pleasant to markets within the third yr.” Although the information round this can be compelling, the general narrative warrants some refinement.

The Presidential Election Cycle and S&P 500 Returns

Since 1928, the third yr of the presidential cycle has produced constructive S&P 500 returns 78% of the time, producing 13.5% common returns vs. an all-year common of seven.7%. We didn’t discover different coincident indicators within the financial and financial coverage indicators — rising vs. falling fee environments, for instance — that may additionally provide insights on 2023, however we do imagine a celebration’s diploma of presidency management could also be a crucial issue. A single social gathering held the “trifecta” of the presidency and Home and Senate majorities two-thirds of the time within the first and second years of the cycle, because the Democrats did in 2021 and 2022, however solely about one-third of the time within the third and fourth years.

This can be a acquainted phenomenon in US politics: The president’s social gathering usually faces setbacks within the midterm elections. But it surely additionally implies that the related election cycle could also be congressional slightly than presidential. Markets might merely be rewarding gridlock. Third years that adopted a change from unified to separate authorities averaged 15.0% returns in comparison with 10.7% for third years wherein the trifecta was preserved. The gridlock query appears necessary given the seemingly distinction between 2022’s bold legislative agenda and anxiousness about potential impasse in 2023.

The sequence additionally could also be necessary in anticipating how presidential election cycle idea will play out in 2023. With their glass-half-full outlook, commentators are likely to deal with above-average returns within the third yr and pay much less consideration to below-average returns within the second. Second years have accounted for greater than one-third of the S&P 500’s whole unfavourable return years since 1928 and a fair greater proportion of years with materially unfavourable returns, or these like 2022, with worse than –10% efficiency. The rebound sample from bearish second to bullish third years is the important thing sequencing characteristic. Two down years in a row have solely occurred eight occasions since 1928, and solely as soon as, in 1930 and 1931, throughout the Nice Melancholy, did it occur within the second-to-third-year sequence. So, the second-to-third-year sign could also be particularly highly effective and predictive following such a dark 2022.

As such, all of the main indicators of presidential election cycle idea — third yr, break up authorities, and dismal second yr — would appear to augur nicely for 2023. However are there any present circumstances that may inhibit this predicted power? Put merely, whereas the markets might reply nicely to gridlock, a whole breakdown in authorities functioning could also be a bridge too far.

Whereas fiscal restraint in 2023 after the sizable authorities largesse of 2022 might have its advantages, whole authorities paralysis and dysfunction — not elevating the debt ceiling and never funding the federal government –could also be an excessive amount of for the markets and economic system to bear.

After all, debt ceiling debates are nothing new in US politics and have but to result in disaster. However simply because they haven’t doesn’t imply that they received’t. So, is that this time completely different? Whether it is, a selected congressional cohort could possibly be the edge motive.

Within the tightly divided Home of Representatives with its slim Republican majority, the Home Freedom Caucus wields appreciable affect and might impede laws within the curiosity of each diminishing the scope of presidency and decreasing spending. These efforts may also have a performative factor that helps caucus members elevate their profiles and marketing campaign funds and in any other case construct their manufacturers. This latter part could also be what most differentiates 2023 from earlier third years within the presidential election cycle.

In 2023, as in 2011 and 2013, political drama’s path to financial significance runs squarely via the debt ceiling and federal finances negotiations. The Home Freedom Caucus has positioned itself as a key energy base in that regard and extracted appreciable concessions throughout the efforts to elect Rep. Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the Home. Among the many extra vital of those have been securing the single-member movement to vacate and gaining a number of of the 9 Republican seats on the 13-seat Guidelines Committee. These represent an efficient blocking place, or a veto, that can make it very troublesome to move any laws to lift the debt ceiling with out the group’s settlement or acquiescence.

There are few examples in latest political historical past of comparable teams gaining such affect. The distinction right here is simply how performative congressional politics at the moment have develop into. Amid the rise of social media and a bunch of different politically centrifugal forces, the edge for differentiation has moved ever greater, particularly amid the 2020 election’s lead-up and aftermath.

To grasp simply how this performative energy might have develop into the differentiating issue on this presidential cycle’s third yr, it helps to conduct a recall experiment. Consider 10 members of Congress. What number of of them do you keep in mind for his or her accomplishments? What number of do you keep in mind for his or her transgressions, obstructions, or theatrics? This explains the danger that profitable (not simply threatened) confrontations and disruptions can develop into self-reinforcing phenomena. Or, in an ever-escalating high-stakes recreation of hen, what occurs if neither aspect blinks?

There’s a counter to all this, after all, and it’s the primary motive why 2023 might comply with expectations and ship robust returns. The debt ceiling drama is simply that, drama — efficiency as friction however with out the probability of inflicting any lasting harm. The markets might endure some scary moments, however the US will ultimately pay its payments. When flying, turbulence is not any enjoyable, however the aircraft will nonetheless land safely.

A number of potential steps might assist keep away from a debt-ceiling deadlock. We count on to listen to extra concerning the idea of a “discharge petition” and foresee an eventual suspension, although maybe not an specific debt-ceiling enhance, as a market-acceptable conclusion. The volatility alongside the way in which might seize headlines, however there’s the underlying and usually stabilizing power of getting a coiled spring of 2022 fiscal packages handed in 2022 — the Infrastructure Invoice, the CHIPS Act, and the Inflation Discount Act, or “Construct Again Higher.” For every of those applications, 2022 might have been the metaphorical structure section whereas 2023 kicks off the constructing section, which, all else being equal, ought to enhance nominal exercise, jobs, and expenditure.

The heuristics of the Inventory Dealer’s Almanac thus present some necessary insights. Nonetheless, the dangers alongside the way in which might peak within the lead-up to the fiscal funding deadline in late September, assuming the so-called extraordinary measures to forestall a debt ceiling breach will be prolonged that far. Thus, it could pay to heed one other such heuristic — beware the early fall.

For extra on this matter, hearken to Michael Edwards’s podcast on the presidential election cycle theory in 2023.

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All posts are the opinion of the writer. As such, they shouldn’t be construed as funding recommendation, nor do the opinions expressed essentially mirror the views of CFA Institute or the writer’s employer.

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