Portfolio Diversification: Harder Than It Used to Be?

“Some of the vexing issues in funding administration is that diversification appears to vanish when buyers want it probably the most.” — Sébastien Web page , CFA, and Robert A. Panariello, CFA, “When Diversification Fails”

Two improvements over the past half century have vastly expanded the vary of securities to which buyers have entry.

Mutual funds had been first launched en masse to the retail investing public within the Nineteen Seventies, and now tens of hundreds have been created and offered to buyers. Starting within the Nineteen Nineties, the same wave of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) adopted of their wake.

As mutual funds and ETFs have multiplied, far-off locales have turn into investable with the press of some buttons. Rising market fairness funds led to frontier market fairness funds and so forth.

In concept, ever-greater entry to world fairness markets ought to have made it simpler for buyers to construct and harvest the advantages of diversified world inventory portfolios.

However has it actually? Has diversifying throughout world fairness indices really helped cut back portfolio danger?

To search out out, we collected as a lot knowledge as we may discover from numerous world inventory market indices going again over the previous a number of a long time: the S&P 500 in america; the FTSE 250 in the UK; the DAX in Germany; the CAC 40 in France; the Nikkei in Japan; the Cling Seng in Hong Kong, SAR; the SSE in mainland China; the TSX in Canada; the BVP in Brazil; the RTS in Russia; the KOSPI in South Korea; the SNX in India; the AOR in Australia; and the IPC in Mexico.

With this knowledge in hand, we examined the correlations amongst every two-index mixture within the Nineteen Eighties, Nineteen Nineties, 2000s, and 2010s to see whether or not diversifying between them really yielded the hoped-for benefits when it comes to danger discount and the way these benefits may need modified over time.

Within the Nineteen Eighties, the common correlation coefficient amongst all of the indices studied for which we had knowledge was 0.25. The minimal correlation coefficient was –0.51, for the BVP and HSI, whereas the utmost, for the S&P 500 and the FTSE 250, was 0.83. Of the 45 correlation coefficients in our pattern for the last decade, 8 had been adverse.

Correlations amongst World Inventory Indices: Nineteen Eighties

Quick ahead to the Nineteen Nineties and the 2000s, and the adverse correlations petered out as dispersion among the many indices fell dramatically together with the related diversification advantages.

Correlations amongst World Inventory Indices: Nineteen Nineties

Correlations amongst World Inventory Indices: 2000s

Within the Nineteen Nineties, the common correlation coefficient had already risen to 0.30. Of the 91 correlation coefficients, solely 7 had been adverse. By the 2000s, the common coefficient had climbed to 0.59 and there wasn’t a single adverse correlation among the many 91 index mixtures.

This pattern continued into the 2010s and the 2020s. Between 2020 and 28 February 2022, the common correlation was 0.70 and the minimal, for the RTS and SSE combo, was 0.37. So, for buyers seeking to cut back volatility this decade, dividing their fairness allocation amongst worldwide inventory indices has not been a very efficient technique.

Correlations amongst World Inventory Indices: 2010s

What occurred? Markets all over the world have advanced, and globalization has been the important thing theme of that course of. In an interconnected and built-in world, fairness markets have grown more and more correlated.

So, whilst buyers have higher entry to distant frontier markets in addition to all method of developed and creating inventory indices, the advantages of diversifying their fairness allocations amongst them has diminished.

Correlation amongst World Indices

Within the Nineteen Eighties, an investor may diversify throughout the HSI and the BVI and reduce the related portfolio volatility by 12 proportion factors in contrast with historic volatility. 

But, within the 2020s to this point, the optimum index combo allocation for diversification functions yields that paltry 0.36 correlation coefficient. That solely cuts portfolio volatility by 3 proportion factors in contrast with historic volatility and requires an allocation to Russian equities, which have many strikes towards them as of late.

In fact, whether or not this pattern of accelerating inventory index correlation will proceed is an open query. Given the current shake-up in world affairs, the reply could very nicely be no.

Many have speculated that the globalization wave of the final half century has crested and is starting to recede. In such a state of affairs, world inventory market indices may turn into much less correlated and their efficiency more and more decoupled from each other. Whether or not that finally ends up being the case might be one thing to control within the months and years forward.

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All posts are the opinion of the writer. As such, they shouldn’t be construed as funding recommendation, nor do the opinions expressed essentially mirror the views of CFA Institute or the writer’s employer.

Picture credit score: ©Getty Photographs / Yuichiro Chino

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